Impact on economic data

2021-07-25

In the following data, the most intuitive impact is the crude oil inventory data, and other data cause more short-term fluctuations.

Us non farm employment data

The changes in the number of non-agricultural employment reflect the development and growth of the manufacturing and service industries. A decrease in the number means that enterprises have reduced production and the economy has entered a depression. In the absence of hyperinflation, a substantial increase in the number indicates a healthy economic situation.

Impact on crude oil: when the U.S. implements normal monetary policy, poor non-agricultural data means that the U.S. economy is poor and the demand for oil is reduced, so crude oil will fall. Good non-agricultural data means that the U.S. economy is good and the demand for oil is increased, so the price of crude oil will rise.

When the U.S. implements abnormal monetary policy, the poor non-agricultural data means that the U.S. will continue to ease monetary policy, and crude oil will rise. The good non-agricultural data means that the U.S. will reduce QE, reduce market funds, and crude oil will fall.

EIA crude oil inventory (American Energy Information Association)

Crude oil inventory increases, economic activity deteriorates, oil demand decreases, and crude oil prices will fall

Crude oil stocks will decrease, economic activities will improve, and oil demand will increase, so crude oil prices will rise

API crude oil inventory

Data released by the American Petroleum Institute

Crude oil inventory shows the relationship between supply and demand. An increase in inventory indicates a decrease in demand and a decrease in oil price. A decrease in inventory indicates an increase in demand and a rise in oil price

Federal Reserve interest rate meeting

The interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve mainly shows the attitude of the Federal Reserve towards monetary policy. The main performance is to reduce the strength of QE. If the Fed continues to reduce QE, it will be bad for crude oil. If the Fed stops reducing QE, it will be good for crude oil

Initial jobless claims in the United States

The number of new claims for unemployment benefits is released once a week, which shows the operation of the U.S. labor market, consistent with the impact of non-agricultural data.

Initial PMI of Markit manufacturing industry in USA

It is a leading indicator to reflect the economic situation, because enterprises can quickly respond to the market environment.

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